Impact of the Qush Tepa Canal on the agricultural sector in Uzbekistan

Impact of the Qush Tepa Canal on the agricultural sector in Uzbekistan

German Economic Team

Start date (month/year): January 2023

Completion date (month/year): June 2023

External Experts – Dr Ihtiyor Bobojonov, Dr. Maksud Bekchanov and Carolin Busch from Berlin Economics

Role on the Assignment: Consultant

On this project we prepared a report that addresses the potential impacts of reduced water availability in Uzbekistan, particularly in regions relying on the Amu Darya River basin. It analyzes the projected effects of both climate change and the construction of the Qush-Tepa canal in Afghanistan, which is expected to further strain water resources. By modelling various scenarios of water reduction, the study predicts significant economic repercussions, especially in the agricultural sector, where water scarcity poses a significant challenge. The report highlights differential impacts across regions, emphasizing the need for targeted policy responses to mitigate adverse effects and promote adaptation measures.

• Developed a comprehensive model to assess the impact of reduced water availability on the agricultural sector, considering factors such as cropping structure, value added from crop production, and employment in crop production.
• Analyzed data on water availability, climate projections, and the expected impact of the Qush-Tepa canal construction to formulate various scenarios of water reduction and their potential consequences.
• Utilized linear optimization modeling techniques calibrated to observed data to estimate the economic effects of reduced water availability, providing insights into GDP reduction, employment changes, and cropping value added at both regional and national levels.
• Offered tailored policy recommendations to the government of Uzbekistan, focusing on adaptation measures to mitigate negative economic impacts, such as incentivizing efficient irrigation practices and advancing land usage liberalization to optimize crop allocation.
• Facilitated engagement with stakeholders, including government officials and relevant agencies, to discuss findings, raise awareness about potential challenges, and garner support for recommended policy actions.
• Assisted in strategic planning by outlining future outlooks, identifying priority regions for intervention, and proposing actionable steps to address water scarcity challenges effectively