General FbF feasibility study on mudflow scenarios in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

General FbF feasibility study on mudflow scenarios in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

German Red Cross

Start date (month/year): February 2023

Completion date (month/year): May 2023

German Red Cross (GRC)

Red Crescent Society of Kyrgyzstan (RCSK)

Red Crescent Society of Tajikistan (RCST)

Red Crescent Society of Uzbekistan (RCSU)

Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Role on the Assignment: Consultant

The project involved an in-depth study and analysis of mudflows in Central Asia, with a focus on the development of an Early Warning System (EWS) using the Forecast-based Financing (FbF) mechanism. This study was conducted to explore the feasibility of implementing Forecast-based Financing (FbF) for mudflow hazards in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan

• Conducted a thorough risk assessment to identify mudflows as the most hazardous natural events in Central Asia
• Assessed the current forecasting methodologies for mudflows and proposed improvements.
• Detailed examination of mudflow relevance in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
• Evaluated the applicability of existing financial instruments such as the FbF (Forecast-based Financing) mechanism to mudflow hazards.
• Identified regions prone to mudflow events, such as the Ferghana Valley, Rasht Valley, and Zerafshan Valley
• Analysed the potential impact of climate change on mudflow frequency in Central Asia
• Recommended a pilot project in the Uzgen District of Kyrgyzstan to test the application of the FbF mechanism to mudflow hazards, indicating collaboration with relevant national meteorological and hydrological services.
• Evaluated the vulnerability of settlements and infrastructure in mountainous areas to mudflow hazards.
• Suggested the development of hardware and software-based early warning systems for mudflows in Central Asia to enhance forecast accuracy and preparedness